THE MORNING MOMENTUM Tuesday, July 21, 2026
🌅 PRE-MARKET SNAPSHOT (as of ~8:50am ET)
Futures are green on fresh ceasefire mediation hopes, with a big week of megacap earnings just getting underway.
Index | Change |
|---|---|
SPY | +0.4% |
QQQ | +1.3% |
DIA | +0.2% |
IWM | +0.4% |
📰 WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Oil is easing on fresh ceasefire hope. The US has now carried out 10 consecutive nights of strikes on Iran, but reports that mediators are pushing for a 10-day ceasefire helped ease oil prices this morning, improving risk appetite. Asian markets rose for the first time in four days overnight, led by chipmakers — Samsung and TSMC were among the biggest contributors, with South Korea and Taiwan both up more than 2.5%.
This is a big week for megacap earnings, with Tesla, Alphabet, and Intel all reporting. 3M reported before today's open and beat cleanly — adjusted EPS of $2.40 vs. the ~$2.25-2.27 estimate (a 6.8% beat), revenue of $6.5B, and the company raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $8.88 at the midpoint. Shares are up ~6.8% premarket, on top of Friday's JPMorgan upgrade to Overweight.
Chips and AI infrastructure names are showing real strength. Marvell is up ~5.6% (confirmed by 2.4x normal options volume), and Nebius — an AI infrastructure name — is up ~7.6% (2.1x volume). Nvidia (+1.3%) and Tesla (+0.5%) are both confirmed higher on 2x+ normal options volume too.
Shopify is down ~4.1% after Rothschild & Co Redburn downgraded it to Neutral from Buy this morning — confirmed by 4.2x normal options volume, real positioning behind the drop.
Halliburton is down ~3.3% on 2.2x normal options volume — a notable divergence given oil prices are easing rather than spiking, worth watching if it's margin-specific or broader oilfield-services caution.
🎯 MOMENTUM PLAYS TO WATCH — Confirmed by Options Flow
NBIS — Up ~7.6% on 2.1x normal options volume — the clearest confirmed AI-infrastructure signal today.
MRVL — Up ~5.6% on 2.4x normal options volume, extending the chip sector's rebound.
SHOP — Down ~4.1% on 4.2x normal options volume — today's highest relative options activity, tied to this morning's analyst downgrade.
NVDA & TSLA — Up 0.5-1.3%, both confirmed by 2x+ normal options volume, ahead of Tesla's earnings later this week.
🎲 GUESS THE CHART
This industrial conglomerate just announced a strategic AI-datacenter partnership with Microsoft last week, got upgraded by JPMorgan to Overweight on Friday, and beat this morning's earnings estimates by 6.8% while raising full-year guidance. Which ticker
(Answer: Scroll back up if you want a hint.)
📅 TODAY'S CALENDAR
3M already reported before the open (beat and raised). Tesla, Alphabet, and Intel all report earnings this week. Watch for further Iran ceasefire headlines throughout the day.
⚡ TRADER'S NOTE
Today's setup mirrors a pattern from earlier this month: diplomatic hope (not resolution) easing oil, lifting risk assets broadly. The real story underneath is earnings season accelerating — 3M's move this morning is the first test of whether this week's megacap reports can justify current valuations after two weeks of chip-sector whiplash.
⚠️ DISCLAIMER
This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.