THE MORNING MOMENTUM Monday, August 3, 2026
🌅 PRE-MARKET SNAPSHOT (as of ~9:10am ET)
A broad rally to start August — real de-escalation in the Middle East, plus a heavy week of earnings and labor-market data ahead.
Index | Change |
|---|---|
SPY | +0.5% |
QQQ | +0.2% |
DIA | +1.2% |
IWM | +0.9% |
📰 WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Trump called off planned "massive" strikes on Iran, opting for fresh talks aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz starting today. Oil fell sharply and Treasury yields eased on the news — a genuine step back from the brink after last week's escalation. Markets are pricing an 86% probability of a positive open today.
SpaceX reports its first-ever quarterly earnings as a public company tomorrow (Tuesday) — and the stock is down ~1.5% today (2.7x normal options volume) heading into it. The timing matters: a lockup period expires August 6, potentially freeing up roughly 930 million shares (about $100 billion at current prices) for trading. SpaceX IPO'd June 12 at $135, peaked near $226 four days later, and has fallen more than 30% since.
A big pharma divergence: Bristol Myers Squibb is up ~8% on merger reports, while AstraZeneca is down ~6.4% — the two stocks moving in opposite directions on the same story.
GameStop is down sharply (reports range 6-11% depending on timing) after agreeing to convert $1.4 billion of convertible notes into common shares — reducing debt but diluting existing shareholders.
Megacaps are showing real, confirmed strength. Microsoft is up ~2.2% (2.3x normal options volume), Alphabet Class A is up ~2.0% (2.2x volume), and Amazon is up ~2.1% on a notably high 4.4x normal options volume.
Memory stocks are broadly lower to start the week — a real reversal from last week's strength, worth watching given how central that theme has been all month.
🎯 MOMENTUM PLAYS TO WATCH — Confirmed by Options Flow
AMZN — Up ~2.1% on 4.4x normal options volume — the highest relative options activity of any megacap today.
MSFT & GOOGL — Up 2.0-2.2%, both confirmed by ~2.2-2.3x normal options volume — genuine continued strength.
SPCX — Down ~1.5% on 2.7x normal options volume, heading into tomorrow's first-ever earnings report as a public company.
AAPL — Essentially flat, but showing 4.2x normal options volume — the highest relative activity of any single name today despite no price move, a week after its own earnings crash.
🎲 GUESS THE CHART
This company IPO'd in mid-June at $135, hit highs above $225 within days, and has since fallen more than 30% — with a huge share lockup expiring this week, right before its first-ever earnings report. Which ticker?
(Answer: Scroll back up if you want a hint.)
📅 TODAY'S CALENDAR
A busy week ahead for earnings and labor-market data. SpaceX reports tomorrow; its share lockup expires Thursday, August 6.
⚡ TRADER'S NOTE
Today's rally rests on the same kind of genuine, not just hoped-for, de-escalation we've seen move markets before this month — worth watching whether it holds given how quickly this exact story has reversed in past weeks. SpaceX is the name to watch most closely over the next few days: a first earnings report and a massive lockup expiration landing almost back-to-back is a real test of the stock's post-IPO stability.
⚠️ DISCLAIMER
This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.