THE MORNING MOMENTUM Friday, July 31, 2026
🌅 PRE-MARKET SNAPSHOT (as of ~9:10am ET)
Another dramatic earnings morning — Apple beat but crashed on guidance, while Roblox and Reddit both cratered on weak reports.
Index | Change |
|---|---|
SPY | +0.3% |
QQQ | +1.1% |
DIA | +0.4% |
IWM | +0.3% |
📰 WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Apple beat on both revenue and earnings — and still crashed ~7.8% premarket. Revenue hit $109.42B (vs. ~$108.65B estimated) and EPS came in at $2.02 (vs. ~$1.89 estimated), with iPhone sales up 22% year-over-year — Tim Cook called it "our strongest June quarter ever." But Services revenue missed ($30.74B vs. $31.22B expected), Greater China revenue missed ($18.8B vs. $19.5B expected), and iPad revenue missed too. The real driver of the selloff: Apple guided Q4 revenue growth to just 9-11%, below the 12% consensus, specifically citing supply constraints and "severe DRAM/NAND price inflation" — tying directly into the memory-chip supply crunch we've tracked all month.
Micron is a direct, confirmed beneficiary of that same story. Up ~4.3% (2.5x normal options volume) — the exact price pressure squeezing Apple's margins is the tailwind driving Micron's memory-chip business.
Roblox and Reddit both cratered on weak reports. Roblox is down ~21.3% (3.4x normal options volume) and Reddit is down ~15.4% (2.4x normal options volume) — two more names joining this week's growing list of "miss and get punished hard" reactions.
Microsoft, yesterday's big winner, is essentially flat today but showing 5.1x normal options volume — the highest relative options activity of any name on our scan, real ongoing positioning a day after its ~9% surge.
🎯 MOMENTUM PLAYS TO WATCH — Confirmed by Options Flow
AAPL — Down ~7.8% on 2.8x normal options volume — a real beat, undone by guidance and margin concerns.
RBLX — Down ~21.3% on 3.4x normal options volume — the sharpest confirmed move of the morning.
RDDT — Down ~15.4% on 2.4x normal options volume — another confirmed earnings-driven crash.
MU — Up ~4.3% on 2.5x normal options volume — a direct beneficiary of the DRAM/NAND pricing dynamic hurting Apple's guidance.
🎲 GUESS THE CHART
This stock has fallen from around $81 in January to under $40 today — a sustained decline all year, punctuated by another sharp earnings-driven drop this morning of over 20%. Which ticker?
(Answer: Scroll back up if you want a hint.)
📅 TODAY'S CALENDAR
Light on major scheduled events after a heavy week of earnings and the FOMC decision. Worth watching for any follow-through on Apple's guidance-driven selloff and continued Iran-related headlines.
⚡ TRADER'S NOTE
This week has delivered an unusual number of "beat the headline numbers, still get punished" stories — TSMC, Intel, Apple, and now arguably the whole memory-chip-squeeze narrative connecting them. Worth remembering heading into next week: strong results are necessary but no longer sufficient on their own — guidance and margin quality are doing most of the work in how the market reacts.
⚠️ DISCLAIMER
This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.