The Morning Momentum
THE MORNING MOMENTUM Wednesday, July 15, 2026
🌅 PRE-MARKET SNAPSHOT (as of ~8:20am ET)
Building on yesterday's rally after cooler inflation data — futures are modestly higher, with chips getting a fresh boost from ASML.
Index | Change |
|---|---|
SPY | +0.1% |
QQQ | +0.3% |
DIA | ~flat |
IWM | ~flat |
📰 WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Yesterday's CPI cooled hard — June inflation fell 0.4% month-over-month (vs. -0.2% expected), with the annual rate down to 3.5% (vs. 3.8% expected), the biggest single-month drop since April 2020. Nasdaq +0.9%, S&P +0.38%; the Dow barely budged (+0.02%) after IBM crashed 25% on a guidance warning. Today brings the follow-up: June PPI at 8:30am ET, the Fed's Beige Book, and Warsh's second day of Senate testimony after sounding hawkish yesterday ("no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation").
ASML raised its 2026 sales forecast and announced a 30% capacity increase, easing supply-bottleneck fears — up ~2.6% premarket, lifting the broader chip trade (TSM +1.1%, confirmed by 2.4x normal options volume).
PayPal is up ~19% on a reported (not confirmed) $53B Stripe/Advent takeover offer at $60.50/share.
IBM is bouncing for real — up ~1.7% premarket on 4.7x normal options volume, the highest relative options activity of any name today, a day after its 25% crash.
AEHR is up ~29% after smashing Q4 estimates and guiding FY27 revenue to $130-150M, nearly double the $85M consensus — a clean, isolated earnings story.
Pentair is down another ~22%, continuing yesterday's crash on a guidance cut and CFO departure.
Oil's elevated but the signals are mixed: Trump swapped his proposed 20% Hormuz "protection fee" for trade deals with Gulf states, while also threatening to "knock out all of their bridges" unless Iran negotiates. Iran's IRGC is threatening to close other export corridors in response. WTI near $79-80.
🎯 MOMENTUM PLAYS TO WATCH — Confirmed by Options Flow
IBM — Up ~1.7% on 4.7x normal options volume — today's standout confirmed signal.
Banks broadly — JPM, C, WFC, BAC, MS all showing 2.1-3x normal options volume with modest gains as earnings season continues.
NVDA — Essentially flat, but 2.9x normal options volume — notable positioning despite no price move.
TSM — Up ~1.1% on 2.4x normal options volume, tracking the ASML-driven chip optimism.
🎲 GUESS THE CHART
This stock just reported earnings after the bell yesterday — beat on both EPS and revenue, and guided next year's revenue to nearly double what analysts expected. It's up ~29% premarket. Which ticker?
📅 TODAY'S CALENDAR
June PPI (8:30am ET), Fed Beige Book, Warsh's Senate testimony. Earnings from JNJ, Progressive, BNY, PNC, Kinder Morgan, United Airlines (MS and BLK already reported).
⚡ TRADER'S NOTE
Yesterday's CPI surprise is doing real work — it's why chips are rallying and why IBM's bounce has genuine options-flow conviction, not just relief buying. Today's PPI is the next test of that story.
⚠️ DISCLAIMER
This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.