THE MORNING MOMENTUM Tuesday, June 30, 2026 — Jobs Week, Day 2
🌅 PRE-MARKET SNAPSHOT
Markets are holding steady this morning after yesterday's rally pushed the Dow above 52,000 for the first time. The Iran ceasefire is holding, tech is bouncing back, and all eyes are on Nike's earnings tonight plus Thursday's jobs report.
Index | Premarket | Change |
|---|---|---|
SPY | $742.42 | ↑ +0.19% |
QQQ | $726.25 | ↑ +0.30% |
📰 WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Dow crosses 52,000 for the first time ever. Stocks rallied Monday as easing Iran tensions and a tech rebound pushed markets to fresh records. Alphabet officially joined the Dow Jones Industrial Average and surged 5% on its debut session as a Dow component, helping lift the index. Big symbolic moment for the market heading into the back half of the year.
Nike reports tonight — and the setup is tense. Shares are down roughly 35% this year heading into the print. Options markets are pricing an 8% move in either direction post-earnings, with $40 as the key support level and $50 as resistance. Analysts expect Q4 EPS of $0.13, a 6% year-over-year decline, with revenue falling 2% to $10.8 billion. Watch this one closely tonight after the close.
Semi equipment makers are breaking out. AMAT and LRCX both pushed to fresh 52-week highs this morning on strong volume, confirming the equipment recovery thesis that's been building since last week's earnings season. This isn't just a bounce — it's genuine institutional buying showing up in the tape.
Jobs week is here. JOLTS job openings data drops today, ADP private payrolls hit tomorrow, and the big one — nonfarm payrolls — lands Thursday since markets are closed Friday for the holiday. Economists expect a slowdown to around 135,000 jobs added in June, down from May's 172,000. A weak print could fuel rate cut hopes; a hot one keeps the Fed cautious.
🎯 MOMENTUM PLAYS TO WATCH
AMAT & LRCX — Breaking out on volume Both names cleared their 52-week highs this morning with real volume behind the move, not just a quiet drift. This confirms the semiconductor equipment recovery story following last week's bullish earnings season. If you're looking for exposure, watch for a pullback toward the breakout level as a lower-risk entry — but don't be surprised if these simply keep running given the strength of the signal.
RKLB — Still digesting the Iridium deal Up double digits this week after announcing its $8 billion acquisition of Iridium Communications. The deal transforms Rocket Lab from a pure launch company into a vertically integrated space communications player — directly competing with SpaceX's Starlink model. Already extended short-term, but the long-term story just got a lot more interesting.
NKE — Binary event tonight With implied volatility pricing an 8% swing, this is a coin-flip setup. A beat could spark a relief rally toward $44-46; a miss risks a slide toward $38 support. Not a momentum trade — more of a watch-and-react situation once the print hits after the close.
💰 COVERED CALL OPPORTUNITY OF THE WEEK
UNH — Premium for patience With UNH holding steady near $420, the July 31 $450 call offers solid premium for investors willing to give the stock a month to work. That strike sits roughly 7% above current levels, giving plenty of room for upside before any assignment risk, while still capturing strong time value given recent volatility. A clean way to generate income on a name trading well above its average cost.
📅 THIS WEEK'S CALENDAR
Day | Event |
|---|---|
Today | JOLTS, Consumer Confidence, Chicago PMI, NKE earnings after close |
Wednesday | ADP Jobs, ISM Manufacturing PMI |
Thursday | 🔥 Nonfarm Payrolls — biggest data point of the week |
Friday | Markets CLOSED — Independence Day |
⚡ TRADER'S NOTE
Three big things converge this week: a fresh Dow record, Nike's binary earnings event, and Thursday's jobs report compressed into a holiday-shortened week. Expect elevated volatility through Thursday, then a quiet slide into the long weekend. Position with discipline — this isn't the week to overextend on margin.
The Morning Momentum publishes daily before market open. themorningmomentum.beehiiv.com | @TMomentumDaily
⚠️ DISCLAIMER
The Morning Momentum is published for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing in this newsletter constitutes financial advice, investment advice, or trading advice. All content is the opinion of the author and should not be relied upon as a basis for making investment decisions. Trading stocks and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always do your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The author may hold positions in securities mentioned in this newsletter.