I Sold. Then MU Proved Me Wrong.

⚡ THE MORNING MOMENTUM
Pre-market intelligence for retail traders
Thursday, June 25, 2026 · themorningmomentum.beehiiv.com

Micron just rewrote the playbook. The memory supercycle has a new ceiling.

After Wednesday's close, Micron reported Q3 revenue of $41.5B — crushing the $35.8B estimate by 16%. Q4 guidance came in at $50B, nearly $7B above what Wall Street expected. With HBM capacity sold out, 16 long-term customer agreements signed, and supply tightness "locked in beyond 2027," the AI memory trade is no longer a thesis — it's a fact. Semis are gapping up hard at the open.

MU Revenue Beat: $41.5B (vs $35.8B estimated)
Q4 Guidance: $50B (vs $43.6B estimated)
MU Pre-market: $1,241 (+18.3% overnight)

10-Year Yield: 4.50% → 4.40% (−10 bps · 6-week low)
Brent Crude: $77.10 → $73.74 (−4.3% · back to pre-war level)
S&P 500: −0.10% · Dow +0.35% · Nasdaq −0.43%

The tailwinds were already building before Micron even reported. The 10-year yield dropped 10 basis points on Wednesday — from ~4.50% to ~4.40%, its lowest in six weeks — as Iran peace progress sent oil back to pre-conflict levels.

Lower yields mean lower mortgage rates, which is why homebuilders were quietly among the day's best performers. Dan Nathan made a sharp observation on Fast Money: with yields falling, oil collapsing, and a semi earnings catalyst imminent, the S&P should have done a lot better. It didn't — because the semi selloff ahead of MU's print dragged the Nasdaq enough to offset everything else.

Now that MU has delivered, all those tailwinds are still fully in place. The setup for Thursday is genuinely strong across the board.

"I couldn't hold. And I know many of you felt the same way."

▸ EARLY JUNE — The setup
Semiconductor names were running hard. MU, SOXL, SNDK, LRCX — the AI memory trade was working and conviction was high. It felt like nothing could stop it.

▸ MID-JUNE — SK Hynix blindsides the sector
News out of SK Hynix triggered a violent sector rotation. MU dropped 13% in a single session — its worst day in weeks. SNDK shed 11%. SOXL, the 3x leveraged semiconductor ETF, collapsed over 23%. LRCX, WDC, AMD — everything got hit. The pain was real and it was fast.

▸ THE DECISION — I sold
I couldn't hold through it. I trimmed MU, SOXL, and the other semi names into the selloff. It felt like the right call at the time — cut the bleeding, protect the account, reassess. That's not weakness. That's risk management. Every trader has been here.

▸ JUNE 24 NIGHT — MU reports
Revenue of $41.5B. EPS of $25.11. Q4 guidance of $50B — $7B above estimates. CEO Mehrotra: "Supply shortages will take considerable time to improve, even into 2028." The thesis wasn't broken. It was just on sale.

▸ POST-EARNINGS — Bought back in
Bought back NVDA at $200.22 (20 shares), 1 share of MU at $1,209, and 3 shares of SOXL. Not trying to recapture every dollar lost — just repositioning on the right side of a confirmed supercycle. The earnings proved the story.

The takeaway for all of us: Selling through pain isn't failure — it's human. The mistake isn't in selling. It's in not having a plan for what gets you back in. MU's earnings gave that signal. Know your re-entry trigger before you sell.

🟢 MU · Micron Technology · $1,240.71 · +18.3%
🟢 SOXL · 3x Semi ETF · $259.84 · +13.2%
🟢 SNDK · SanDisk · $2,137.58 · +11.7%
🟢 WDC · Western Digital · $717.62 · +11.5%
🟢 STX · Seagate Technology · $1,076.11 · +8.3%
🟢 LRCX · Lam Research · $397.53 · +6.1%
🟢 ARM · Arm Holdings · $380.26 · +5.9%
🟢 ASML · ASML Holding · $1,832.94 · +4.0%
🟢 AMD · Advanced Micro · $535.63 · +3.1%
🟢 NVDA · Nvidia · $200.52 · +0.8%

Dan Nathan on Fast Money: "This may be as good as it gets for Micron."

Guy Adami agreed. The argument: memory is a commodity cycle business. When a cyclical company reports a near-perfect quarter with peak margins and peak guidance, that's historically when you sell — not buy. Mehrotra himself said supply improves in 2028. That's the beginning of the end of the cycle.

Dan also noted that given falling yields, collapsing oil, and a massive earnings catalyst, the S&P should have performed a lot better Wednesday than it did — a sign the market may be more cautious than the headlines suggest.

Respect the warning. Enjoy what you have. Don't add aggressively from here.

📌 8:30 AM → Final Q1 GDP · Consensus: 1.6%
📌 8:30 AM → Core PCE (May) MoM · Consensus: +0.1–0.2%
📌 8:30 AM → Core PCE (May) YoY · Consensus: 2.6%
📌 8:30 AM → Initial jobless claims · Consensus: 225K
📌 8:30 AM → Durable goods orders · Consensus: +0.2%
📌 10:00 AM → Pending home sales · May reading
📌 Pre-mkt → Earnings: DRI · MKC · CMC · WGO
📌 5:30 PM → Fed's Goolsbee speaks · Watch for rate commentary

PCE is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — a soft print below 2.6% YoY would extend the bond rally and give growth stocks an additional tailwind on top of the MU surge. Watch pending home sales at 10 AM too — lower yields should translate directly into improved housing activity.

HOOD $85 call → Expiring Jun 26 · deep ITM · assignment likely
BMNR $15.50 puts → Expiring Jun 26 · ITM · assignment likely (500 shares)
BMNR $16.00 puts → Expiring Jun 26 · ITM · assignment likely (500 shares)
SOFI $17 puts → Expiring Jun 26 · OTM · on track to expire worthless ✓
AMZN $245 call → Expiring Jun 26 · monitor closely at open

Thursday has everything lined up — a blowout MU quarter, yields at a 6-week low, oil back to pre-war levels, and a broad macro backdrop that should have been rocket fuel for equities even before Micron reported.

The SK Hynix selloff shook a lot of people out. That's the game. Nobody holds perfectly through every storm. What matters is knowing when the story is still intact and having the conviction to get back in when the data proves it. Last night, Micron provided that signal loud and clear.

Let the open breathe. Find your spots. Stay sharp.

⚡ The Morning Momentum
themorningmomentum.beehiiv.com · @TMomentumDaily
Not financial advice. Do your own research. Trade responsibly.