THE MORNING MOMENTUM Wednesday, July 8, 2026
🌅 PRE-MARKET SNAPSHOT (as of ~8:45am ET)
Futures are down across the board after President Trump declared the Iran ceasefire "over" at the NATO summit in Ankara overnight — a real risk-off morning, not a rotation story like the last two days.
Index | Change |
|---|---|
SPY | −0.6% |
QQQ | −0.8% |
DIA | −0.8% |
IWM | −0.6% |
📰 WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
The real story: Trump says the Iran ceasefire is "over." Following strikes on three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz this week, the US carried out retaliatory strikes on Iran, and Trump told reporters at the NATO summit, "I think it's over. I don't want to deal with them anymore." Oil spiked hard on the news — Brent +5.3% to $78.07, WTI +5% to $73.97 — and it's the single biggest driver of today's tape.
Energy is leading, confirmed by real positioning. XOM (+1.3%) and CVX (+1.6%) are both up on the oil spike, and XOM specifically is showing 2x normal options volume — real conviction behind the move, not just a headline bounce.
Tech and growth names are underperforming. Micron is down ~3.5% (still working through its own guidance-driven selloff from yesterday), and broader risk-off is weighing on high-multiple names — Palantir −2.5% and Meta −0.9%, both on 2x+ normal options volume, suggesting real de-risking, not just drift.
Rivian is down another ~5%, compounding Monday's ~10% drop after the company sold 75 million shares to raise capital — dilution plus today's risk-off backdrop is a rough combination.
Also notable: European markets sold off broadly (Stoxx 600 −0.7%), and Spanish bonds and equities fell sharply after Trump told the NATO summit he wants to "cut off all trade with Spain." Gold, oddly, fell for a fourth straight session even as tensions escalated — safe-haven positioning has been unwinding since the conflict began in February, and today didn't reverse that.
🎯 MOMENTUM PLAYS TO WATCH — Confirmed by Options Flow
XOM — Up ~1.3% on 2x normal options volume. Real conviction behind the energy trade, not just oil-price optics.
TSLA — Down ~0.9% on ~2.9x normal options volume — notable positioning even though the price move itself is modest.
RIVN — Down ~5% on ~2.7x normal options volume. Compounding this week's share-dilution news with today's broader risk-off.
PLTR & META — Both down ~1–2.5% on 2x+ normal options volume — real de-risking in high-multiple growth names today.
📅 TODAY'S CALENDAR
No major scheduled US data. Watch for further Iran/Strait of Hormuz headlines and any NATO summit follow-through — this is a headline-driven day, not a data-driven one.
⚡ TRADER'S NOTE
Today is a genuine geopolitical repricing, not a technical setup — oil, energy stocks, and safe-haven flows are all reacting to a real event, and that's a different animal than the sector-rotation stories of the last two sessions. The options flow on XOM (bullish) and RIVN/TSLA/PLTR/META (bearish conviction) is the clearest signal of where real money is positioning. Worth watching headlines more than charts today.
⚠️ DISCLAIMER
This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.