THE MORNING MOMENTUM Monday, July 27, 2026
🌅 PRE-MARKET SNAPSHOT (as of ~8:50am ET)
A genuine relief rally — the US and Iran actually paused strikes over the weekend, not just talked about it.
Index | Change |
|---|---|
SPY | +0.9% |
QQQ | +1.4% |
DIA | +1.1% |
IWM | +1.0% |
📰 WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
This time the de-escalation is real, not just hopeful talk. The US and Iran refrained from further strikes over the weekend after nearly two weeks of near-daily exchanges — a genuine pause, not another unconfirmed diplomatic comment. Brent crude fell as much as 7.4% to below $90 a barrel before paring about half that drop; oil is still up more than 50% this year given the disruption to Middle East supply.
The FOMC's two-day meeting begins today, with the rate decision expected Wednesday. Markets are pricing in an 88% probability of a positive open today, and futures were already pointing sharply higher before the cash open.
Earnings season keeps beating expectations by a wide margin. S&P 500 companies are tracking 38% year-over-year earnings growth for the quarter, according to FactSet — far above original expectations heading into the season. It's a big week ahead for megacap reports, including Meta and Microsoft.
Nebius is up ~5.6% on 2.6x normal options volume, and Bloom Energy is up ~5.0% on 2.4x normal options volume — both continuing this year's AI-infrastructure and data-center-power theme, though Bloom Energy remains well off its late-June highs above $345 after a sharp single-day crash in late June.
Oil-services names are diverging. Baker Hughes is up ~2.6% (2.9x normal options volume) even as oil falls, while SLB (−1.2%) and CVR Energy (−3.9%) are both lower, tracking the broader crude selloff more directly.
🎯 MOMENTUM PLAYS TO WATCH — Confirmed by Options Flow
NBIS — Up ~5.6% on 2.6x normal options volume — the clearest confirmed AI-infrastructure signal today.
BE — Up ~5.0% on 2.4x normal options volume, though still well below its late-June peak.
INTC — Up ~1.7% on 2.9x normal options volume, continuing Friday's earnings-driven strength.
BKR — Up ~2.6% on 2.9x normal options volume — a genuine divergence from the broader oil-services pullback today.
🎲 GUESS THE CHART
This stock nearly quadrupled from January lows to a late-June peak above $345, driven by AI-datacenter power demand, before crashing more than 45% in a single day in late June. It's up ~5% today, still well below its highs. Which ticker ?
(Answer: Scroll back up if you want a hint.)
📅 TODAY'S CALENDAR
FOMC's two-day meeting begins today; rate decision expected Wednesday at 2pm ET. A busy earnings week ahead, including Meta and Microsoft.
⚡ TRADER'S NOTE
Today's rally is built on something more solid than the last few "ceasefire hope" bounces this month — an actual pause in strikes, not just a hopeful comment from a diplomat. Worth watching whether that holds through the week, especially with the FOMC decision landing Wednesday right in the middle of a heavy earnings stretch.
⚠️ DISCLAIMER
This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.