THE MORNING MOMENTUM Monday, July 13, 2026
🌅 PRE-MARKET SNAPSHOT (as of ~8:55am ET)
Oil is back in focus after an escalation-filled weekend — energy is broadly higher, growth names are showing real weakness.
Index | Change |
|---|---|
SPY | −0.35% |
QQQ | −1.08% |
DIA | −0.09% |
IWM | −0.33% |
📰 WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
The Iran conflict escalated further over the weekend. The US carried out its fourth strike in a week against Iran on Sunday, in retaliation for an Iranian attack on a Cyprus-flagged container ship. Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz "closed until further notice" — a claim US Central Command denies, saying its forces are conducting more strikes specifically to keep the waterway open. Brent crude jumped nearly 4% to around $79, WTI near $74, both snapping a two-day losing streak. This directly extends last Wednesday's "ceasefire is over" story into a real, ongoing escalation.
Energy stocks are broadly higher, but not dramatically so. A wide swath of the sector — Equinor, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, SLB, Halliburton, PSX, Marathon Petroleum, Williams, Kinder Morgan — are all up modestly (roughly 1-2.5%), reflecting the oil move without panic-level conviction.
Growth and momentum names are showing real weakness, confirmed by options flow, and it's intensifying. Nvidia (−1.5%), Tesla (−0.9%), and Meta (−0.8%) are all down on 2x+ normal options volume — real de-risking, and broader than an hour ago. This is starting to look less like isolated weakness and more like a genuine risk-off morning across the board, including the Dow, which has now flipped negative.
One to flag rather than misread: National Beverage (FIZZ) looks like it dropped ~9% today, but this is mostly mechanical — today is the ex-dividend date for a $3.25/share special cash dividend, which explains the bulk of the drop. There's also some real underlying weakness (a recent earnings miss), but the headline number overstates the story.
🎯 MOMENTUM PLAYS TO WATCH — Confirmed by Options Flow
NVDA — Down ~1.5% on 2.6x normal options volume — the clearest confirmed bearish signal today.
TSLA & META — Down ~0.9% and ~0.8% respectively, both on 2x+ normal options volume — real de-risking, echoing last week's Iran-driven pattern.
MARA & CRCL — Down ~2.1% and ~1.9% respectively, both on 2.3x+ normal options volume — crypto and crypto-adjacent names giving back more ground as risk appetite cools further.
SOFI — Up ~2.8% on 2.5x normal options volume — one of the few names showing confirmed strength today.
📅 TODAY'S CALENDAR
No major scheduled US economic data. Headlines out of the Strait of Hormuz and any further US-Iran exchanges are what's likely to move markets today.
⚡ TRADER'S NOTE
This is starting to look less like a one-off shock and more like a genuine pattern: oil-driven risk-off, confirmed by real options positioning in growth names, each time the Iran conflict escalates. Worth watching whether today's moves are as contained as last week's turned out to be, or whether a fourth strike in a week marks a real shift in intensity.
⚠️ DISCLAIMER
This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.