THE MORNING MOMENTUM Tuesday, August 4, 2026
🌅 PRE-MARKET SNAPSHOT (as of ~9:00am ET)
A genuinely big day — Palantir already surged on blockbuster earnings, and SpaceX reports its first-ever quarterly results tonight.
Index | Change |
|---|---|
SPY | +0.4% |
QQQ | +1.1% |
DIA | +1.2% |
IWM | +0.5% |
📰 WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Palantir is up ~15.2% (3.9x normal options volume) after delivering blockbuster Q2 results and raising its full-year outlook — one of the clearest, most confirmed moves we've seen all summer.
SpaceX reports its first-ever quarterly earnings tonight after the close, and the stock is up ~2.4% today (2.2x normal options volume) heading in. Analysts expect Q2 revenue of $6.9B (+68% YoY), with full-year 2026 growth expected around 100%. The stakes are unusually high: since its June 12 IPO at $135, SpaceX has lost over $500B in market cap and is down more than 50% from its intraday high. Short interest sits at 32.2% of the tradable float — a genuinely bearish positioning heading into results. A large chunk of insider shares unlocks Thursday, two days after tonight's report. Bernstein has a Buy rating and $239 price target, arguing Starship progress matters more than this quarter's specific numbers. AMD also reports tonight.
Monday's close hit a Dow record high, driven by a broad tech rally, falling oil prices, and easing geopolitical tension — confirming yesterday's "real de-escalation" story had real follow-through.
Fresh reports of attacks in the Strait of Hormuz surfaced again this morning, and oil is climbing on the news — but unlike past weeks, equities aren't reacting much. One analyst noted markets are "willing to treat the latest attacks as an energy-market story rather than a growth-and-inflation story" for now, given earnings remain the bigger driver of price action.
Earnings season keeps beating at an extraordinary rate. With roughly 85% of S&P 500 companies beating estimates, aggregate profit growth is tracking above 47% this season — even stronger than last week's already-elevated 38% figure.
Not every mover today is positive: Microsoft (−2.1%, 2.5x normal options volume), Alphabet (−1.2% to −1.3%, 2.3-2.5x volume), and Nike (−3.1%, 3.5x volume) are all confirmed lower, a reminder that today's rally isn't universal.
🎯 MOMENTUM PLAYS TO WATCH — Confirmed by Options Flow
PLTR — Up ~15.2% on 3.9x normal options volume — today's standout confirmed signal, driven by a genuine earnings beat and raise.
SPCX — Up ~2.4% on 2.2x normal options volume, heading into tonight's make-or-break first earnings report.
MSFT & GOOGL — Down 1.2-2.1%, both confirmed by 2.3-2.5x normal options volume — real weakness underneath today's index-level rally.
NKE — Down ~3.1% on 3.5x normal options volume — the sharpest confirmed decline of the morning.
🎲 GUESS THE CHART
This AI software and data-analytics company just delivered blockbuster Q2 results and raised its full-year outlook, sending shares up over 15% today. Which ticker?
(Answer: Scroll back up if you want a hint.)
📅 TODAY'S CALENDAR
SpaceX and AMD both report after today's close — the single biggest event of the week, given the stakes around SpaceX's first earnings and Thursday's lockup expiration.
⚡ TRADER'S NOTE
Tonight's SpaceX report is genuinely high-stakes in a way most earnings this season haven't been — a stock already down 50%+ from its highs, heavy short interest, and a massive lockup expiration landing just two days later. Worth watching closely regardless of which direction it goes, since the reaction will say a lot about whether the market believes in the long-term AI/Starship story or is bracing for more selling pressure.
⚠️ DISCLAIMER
This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.