THE WEEKLY ROUNDUP
It was a holiday-shortened week, but nobody told the market to slow down. The Dow notched back-to-back record closes, the jobs report came in soft enough to take rate hikes off the table, one of your own watchlist names announced an $8 billion acquisition, and semiconductors took their worst beating in months. Here's everything that mattered, and what it means for the week ahead.
The Big Picture
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a fresh record above 52,900 on Thursday, capping the best first-half performance for the index since 2021 (+8.9% through June). The S&P 500 added 9.6% in the first half, and the Nasdaq climbed 12.8%. Small caps stole the show: the Russell 2000 surged nearly 22%, its best first half in years.
Then came Thursday's jobs report. June nonfarm payrolls printed at just 57,000, roughly half of what economists expected, and April and May were revised down a combined 74,000 jobs. Strip out a leisure-and-hospitality air pocket (payback from a World Cup-driven May spike) and the underlying picture was steadier than the headline suggested — professional services, healthcare, and social assistance all kept adding jobs. Unemployment actually ticked down to 4.2%, and wages held at +3.5% year-over-year.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, in his first public remarks since taking over, said inflation risks "have come down," pointing to falling energy prices as the U.S.-Iran situation de-escalates. Combined with the soft jobs number, that's enough to push a September rate hike off the table for now — good news for growth stocks and anything rate-sensitive.
Markets were closed Friday, July 3, for the Independence Day holiday.
What Moved
Semiconductors got hit hard. After an unprecedented run — the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) was up more than 64% year-to-date as of July 2 — the group rolled over hard into quarter-end. Micron fell more than 10% in a single session (still up 260%+ YTD), Sandisk dropped over 10% too (still up 750%+ YTD), and the sector's two-day decline in some names topped 20%. Michael Burry disclosed new short positions against Micron, Nvidia, Applied Materials, Tesla, and Caterpillar, citing AI-bubble concerns — worth watching as a sentiment marker even if you don't trade around it.
Rocket Lab made a huge move. RKLB agreed to acquire satellite communications provider Iridium in an all-stock deal worth about $8 billion, and analysts loved it. Needham, Citizens JMP, and Bank of America all reiterated or raised price targets, with several framing Rocket Lab as building toward a "vertically integrated space platform." The stock rallied on the news but has since cooled to the $97–107 range after a sharp pullback from its May all-time high near $151. Support is being watched around the 200-day moving average in the $73–77 zone.
Netflix was the week's quiet standout, jumping 5% in a single session (best day since February) and finishing the week up roughly 5.6%, even as the broader Nasdaq-100 sold off around it. No single catalyst was clearly identified, which makes it one to watch for follow-through or a fade.
SpaceX (SPCX) heads into the Nasdaq-100 at Tuesday's open (July 7), which means forced buying from index funds tracking the benchmark. Shares closed the week around $162, with the inclusion trade seen as having a few more sessions to run before the flows are absorbed.
Bending Spoons (owner of AOL and Vimeo, among other legacy internet brands) made a splashy Nasdaq debut, popping as much as 42% above its IPO price on its first day of trading.
Portfolio Corner
A few notes tied to positions and levels you've been tracking:
RKLB — Now sitting around $100, above your $92 watch level. The Iridium deal changes the investment case somewhat (RKLB is now buying growth rather than just executing on Neutron), so it may be worth revisiting whether $92 is still the right entry given the news, or whether a pullback toward the $73–77 support zone becomes the more interesting level if it gets there.
NFLX — Rallied 5.6% on the week without an obvious news catalyst. Your position remains underwater on cost basis, but a move like this is at least a step in the right direction — worth watching whether it holds or fades back.
The Week Ahead
Monday, July 6 (today): ISM Services PMI releases, an early read on the health of the dominant services side of the economy.
Tuesday, July 7: SpaceX officially joins the Nasdaq-100 at the open — expect index-fund buying pressure.
Wednesday, July 8: FOMC minutes from Chair Warsh's first meeting are released. Markets will parse them for detail behind the more hawkish dot-plot shift (several officials had penciled in a possible hike), now viewed through the lens of this week's soft jobs data.
Tuesday, July 14: June CPI — the last major inflation read before the July 28–29 FOMC decision. May's headline ran +4.2% year-over-year, driven mostly by energy. JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs report Q2 earnings that same morning.
The broader story heading into the second half: a rotation away from the red-hot semiconductor trade that dominated the first half and into steadier, broader-market names, as a cooling labor market gives the Fed room to stay patient rather than hawkish.
Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. It is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Any mention of specific stocks, sectors, or the author's personal portfolio and holdings reflects personal opinions and positions at the time of writing, which may change at any time without notice, and may involve a conflict of interest. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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