The Morning Momentum
THE MORNING MOMENTUM Thursday, July 16, 2026
🌅 PRE-MARKET SNAPSHOT (as of ~8:20am ET)
Futures are subdued after two straight days of gains on cooler inflation data — a pause, not a reversal, with two huge earnings reports doing the real work today.
Index | Change |
|---|---|
SPY | −0.3% |
QQQ | −0.9% |
DIA | +0.1% |
IWM | −0.4% |
📰 WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
UnitedHealth crushed it. Adjusted EPS of $6.38 blew past the ~$4.85 estimate, revenue came in at $112.0B (above the ~$110.8B expected), and the company raised full-year adjusted guidance to $19.50-$20.00 (up from >$18.25 prior). Shares are up ~6.9% premarket.
TSMC's earnings tell a genuinely interesting "beat but sold off" story. Record Q2 profit, up 77% year-over-year — the fifth straight record quarter — with revenue at the high end of guidance and strong Q3 guidance (+37% YoY). But the stock is down ~4.3% on 2.2x normal options volume, real conviction behind the drop. Why: TSMC raised 2026 capex by ~15% to $60-64B and warned new overseas fabs will dilute margins 2-4% in the coming years — after a stock that already ran up 40% this quarter, "priced for perfection" met a slightly-less-than-perfect margin outlook. Marvell is getting caught in the same downdraft, down ~4.0% on 2.1x normal options volume.
PayPal is giving back some of yesterday's historic pop. After its best day ever on the reported Stripe/Advent takeover offer, shares are down slightly today (−0.75%) but on 4.5x normal options volume — real repositioning, with one analyst noting a buyout is "far from a done deal."
AEHR is cooling off too — down ~4.5% on 3.5x normal options volume, giving back part of yesterday's 29-42% earnings-driven surge. Profit-taking, not new news.
SpaceX is down ~1.2%, continuing to trade below its $135 IPO price after dipping below it for the first time yesterday — now about 34% off its post-listing highs.
Retail sales came in soft, jobless claims came in strong — a genuinely mixed signal. June retail sales ex-autos fell 0.2% (vs. +0.2% expected), a real miss suggesting consumer spending is cooling. Initial jobless claims, meanwhile, came in at 208K (vs. 218K expected) — a stronger labor market read. Futures reacted unevenly: Nasdaq futures fell further on the growth scare, while the Dow held up better, reflecting the split between a soft consumer number and a still-solid jobs number.
Netflix reports after the close today.
🎯 MOMENTUM PLAYS TO WATCH — Confirmed by Options Flow
TSM — Down ~4.3% on 2.2x normal options volume — today's clearest bearish conviction, driven by capex/margin concerns despite record profit.
MRVL — Down ~4.0% on 2.1x normal options volume, tracking TSM's selloff.
PYPL — Down ~0.8% on 4.5x normal options volume — real positioning shift after yesterday's record-setting rally.
AEHR — Down ~4.5% on 3.5x normal options volume — profit-taking after this week's massive earnings-driven run.
🎲 GUESS THE CHART
This company just posted its fifth straight record quarterly profit — up 77% year-over-year, beating revenue and margin guidance. Its stock still fell ~4% premarket. Which ticker?
📅 TODAY'S CALENDAR
June retail sales (-0.2% ex-autos) and jobless claims (208K) are already out this morning. Earnings from GE Aerospace, Abbott, US Bancorp, Intuitive Surgical (all reported), Netflix (after close).
⚡ TRADER'S NOTE
TSMC's report is the one to sit with today: a genuinely excellent quarter, sold off anyway. That's a good reminder that "beat estimates" and "stock goes up" are two different things once a name is already priced for perfection — the market cares as much about what management says is coming as what already happened.
⚠️ DISCLAIMER
This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.